MIT ocean scientist clarifies findings on small net deep ocean cooling in a warming climate (in letter to editor following news story):
Understanding the ocean
THE article by Graham Lloyd will likely leave a mis-impression with many of your readers concerning the substance of our paper that will appear in the Journal of Physical Oceanography (“Puzzle of deep ocean cooling”, 25/7).
We never assert that global warming and warming of the oceans are not occurring — we do find an ocean warming, particularly in the upper regions.
Contrary to the implications of Lloyd’s article, parts of the deep ocean are warming, parts are cooling, and although the global abyssal average is negative, the value is tiny in a global warming context.
Those parts of the abyss that are warming are most directly linked to the surface (as pointed out by Andy Hogg from the ANU).
Scientifically, we need to better understand what is going on everywhere, and that is an issue oceanographers must address over the next few years — a challenging observational problem that our paper is intended to raise.
Carl Wunsch, Harvard University and Massachusetts, Institute of Technology
In @newyorker, @nijhuism points to studies showing story beats data in conveying climate change calamity. But African example problematic. Enormous implicit variability and clashing models mean local narratives of change/hardship are not valid reflection of greenhouse-driven climate change. See here, here and here. Sub-Saharan Africa response to greenhouse forcing still unclear:
(see @dotearth post)
@KeithKloor weighs in on @RogerPielkeJr flogging. All happening on a tiny corner (attribution debate) of the head of a pin called climate change discourse. All serving those hoping the public stays confused about climate consensus. Rope-a-dope.
Useful @natureclimate commentaries on warming hiatus, flawed 2-degree threshold, etc., below. More on “The Two-Degree Solution" from @dotearth.
The recent slowdown (or ‘pause’) in global surface temperature rise is a hot topic for climate scientists and the wider public. We discuss how climate scientists have tried to communicate the pause and suggest that ‘many-to-many’ communication offers a key opportunity to directly engage with the public.
- Ed Hawkins,
- Tamsin Edwards &
- Doug McNeall
We must not fall victim to decontextualized and ahistorical media accounting of climate trends.
Natural variability can explain fluctuations in surface temperatures but can it account for the current slowdown in warming?
Observational data show a continued increase of hot extremes over land during the so-called global warming hiatus. This tendency is greater for the most extreme events and thus more relevant for impacts than changes in global mean temperature.
- Sonia I. Seneviratne,
- Markus G. Donat,
- Brigitte Mueller &
- Lisa V. Alexander
It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.
- Todd Sanford,
- Peter C. Frumhoff,
- Amy Luers &
- Jay Gulledge
Diplomacy? Sec. Kerry pushes Indonesia to decarbonize as USA energy use emits 17.2 tons CO2/person/yr., Indonesia 1.8. Quote: “It’s not enough for one country or even a few countries to reduce their emissions when other countries continue to fill the atmosphere with carbon pollution as they see fit.” More on Dot Earth.
Big majority of Americans ready for climate action even with cost, finds @yaleclimatecomm. Release:
In Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies, we report that most Americans support national action on global warming:
- Most Americans (83%) say the U.S. should make an effort to reduce global warming, even if it has economic costs.
- Majorities of Americans say that corporations and industry (65%), citizens themselves (61%), and the U.S. Congress (52%) should be doing more to address global warming.
- A majority of Americans (71%) say global warming should be a “very high”, “high”, or “medium” priority for the president and Congress.
The survey also found that majorities of Democrats and Republicans support several climate and energy policies. For example:
- Providing tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels (82% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans support this)
- Funding more research into renewable energy sources (84% and 60% respectively)
- Regulating CO2 as a pollutant (85% and 55%)
- Eliminating all subsidies for the fossil-fuel industry (67% and 52%)
The report includes an Executive Summary and the results broken down by political party and Global Warming’s Six Americas. You can download it here.
My thoughts on @HuffPostPol @InformationDk reports on NSA spying on #COP15 climate talks:
It’s very revealing and important reporting, but I can’t see how this additional intelligence - as the Information.dk story suggests - “may have contributed to the Americans getting their way…”
That implies that the U.S. did get its way.
To me, it still seems clear that China, with India and others, were far more adept than the United States at manipulating the proceedings to guarantee no shift toward a binding global commitment to decarbonization. Read Mark Lynas and Der Spiegel.
Can anyone imagine why President Obama would have committed to going to the meeting in person if the administration knew the outcome would be weak gruel?
“Climate Talks Make Way for a Design Show”
“Views on China’s Role in the Greenhouse”
Postscript 3: Lisa Friedman has an excellent Climate Wire piece noting how inconsequential any NSA monitoring was even if it ended up taking place. Yvo de Boer makes a good point in that piece: ”There is a much bigger debate going on about who is spying on who. But in the climate change negotiations, we should be very much focused on looking forward and building trust, not looking back, not on rehashing things that may or may not have happened in the past,” he said.
Postscript 2: Angel Hsu at Yale, via Twitter (@ecoangelhsu), disagreed with my conclusion about who won and lost in Copenhagen. Read here.
Postscript 1: I do agree with Alden Meyer’s concerns about how these revelations will chill dialogue going forward. Even worse odds for significant steps in Paris in 2015.