Key point in new @yaleclimatecomm paper on US climate activism: “The threat posed by climate change should continue to be a component of climate change messaging, but should be accompanied – and perhaps even preceded – by messages on effective actions individuals can take.”

D. Victor on @atomicrod question: Does wind/solar growth in last 5 yrs exceed loss from nuclear shutdowns? >

I haven’t done the numbers independently, but here’s a rough calculation: 
The short answer:  the rise in non-hydro renewables has been about 3x the lost output from the 6 large nuclear plants that have recently announced shutdowns.   
These reactors have announced shutdowns:  Crystal River (unit 3), Kewaunee (one unit), Oyster Creek (one unit), San Onofre (units 2&3) and Vermont Yankee (one unit).  They add up to 4.2GW of capacity.  Predicting just how much power they would deliver is tricky, but if you assume a capacity factor for nukes of 90% (a number that has varied from 86.4% to 91.8% in the last 7 years) then that’s 33.9 thousand gigawatt hours per year of lost power output.  In the real world the capacity factor for these plants might have been a bit lower, but on the other hand had these units not run into trouble during major overhauls then they might have actually seen higher output—Crystal River, for example, shut due to containment damage during construction that would have uprated the plant by 20%.  So treat my 90% of rated capacity as an illustrative magnitude, not the exact gospel truth of exact power output that will be lost.  Other caveats include that I haven’t carefully checked net and gross outputs of each of these closed plants—I pulled the data from NEI and EIA.   But to put this into context, this lost output from these units is around 4% of US nuclear output in 2012.
From 2007 to 2012 (five years) non-hydro renewables have risen from 105 to 218 thousand gigawatt hours—a net increase in output of 113 thousand gigawatt hours per year.  Nearly all of that rise has been wind (105 thousand gigawatt hours).  People seem particularly excited about solar—witness a column by Paul Krugman presaging the new CAA rules that has a special shout out to solar—but wind is doing essentially all the work right now.  
Solar PV and Solar Thermal together  are 4.3 thousand gigawatt hours in 2012, which is a grand total of 0.11% of US net electricity generation.  Hardly a revolution—yet. 
Wind is 3.5% of US net power generation in 2012, up from just 0.8% in 2007.  It has exploded. Whether that is sustainable remains to be seen. I worry a lot about the sustainability of the subsidy regime and grid operations with such large amounts of variable and intermittent supply, but that’s another topic. 
I use 2012 data above because that’s the latest data set from EIA—where possible, I have relied on EIA data.  See table 3.1.A in particular of the Electricity annual along with table 3.1.B

In @newyorker, @nijhuism points to studies showing story beats data in conveying climate change calamity. But African example problematic. Enormous implicit variability and clashing models mean local narratives of change/hardship are not valid reflection of greenhouse-driven climate change. See here, here and here. Sub-Saharan Africa response to greenhouse forcing still unclear:

(see @dotearth post)

yearsoflivingdangerously:

This comic was produced in partnership by Years of Living Dangerously and Symbolia Magazine. For more amazing real life comics, get Symbolia on your iPad or via PDF. And for more information on the biggest story of our time - check out YEARS.

#DivestHarvard blockades president’s office over fossil fuel investments. I like the divestment discussion because of the way it forces new examinations of terms - what is scope of a board’s “fiduciary responsibility” if your definition of “endowment” goes beyond stocks/bonds/ real estate…? A discussion of this here.

In @davidfolkenflik piece on @voxdotcom @upshotnyt I note limits of data-visualization, etc: ”I’ve had this sobering experience since about, well, almost 10 years. I’ve been writing about the social science of how people accept or reject information. You can have clear data, but people who are dug in on an issue just go out and select the data set that reinforce their predisposition…”

(I also said new efforts to convey the meaning behind numbers are vital, mind you, just not nearly sufficient on their own; didn’t make the cut.)

Good @elikint piece on how government cuts in IPCC summary left authors shell-shocked. (One excised graph above.) David Victor, a lead author from UCSD:
“The whole process is kind of unbelievable,” Victor says. As one of the report’s lead authors, he was in the middle of the negotiations. The outcome raises “fundamental questions about whether the IPCC can really do policy-related assessments in areas where the science is most germane to policy,” he writes in an e-mail. “There has always been a tension between the scientific content and the political approval of IPCC reports. But on the scientific issues that probably matter most to policymakers—such as which kinds of countries cause most emissions, who will bear the greatest burdens in controlling emissions, or how international trade affects emissions and policies—the pendulum has swung strongly toward the governments.”
This Dot Earth post is highly relevant: “Nations’ Handling of New Climate Report Presages Divisions in Treaty Effort.”

Good @elikint piece on how government cuts in IPCC summary left authors shell-shocked. (One excised graph above.) David Victor, a lead author from UCSD:

“The whole process is kind of unbelievable,” Victor says. As one of the report’s lead authors, he was in the middle of the negotiations. The outcome raises “fundamental questions about whether the IPCC can really do policy-related assessments in areas where the science is most germane to policy,” he writes in an e-mail. “There has always been a tension between the scientific content and the political approval of IPCC reports. But on the scientific issues that probably matter most to policymakers—such as which kinds of countries cause most emissions, who will bear the greatest burdens in controlling emissions, or how international trade affects emissions and policies—the pendulum has swung strongly toward the governments.”

This Dot Earth post is highly relevant: “Nations’ Handling of New Climate Report Presages Divisions in Treaty Effort.”

. &  should do  video of @BarackObama #Keystone@NYGovCuomo #fracking policy race.

Congo successfully deploys dog teams to sniff out bushmeat. @thewcs (PALF photos). (Works at JFK Airport, too.) More from Wildlife Conservation Society:

 

NEW YORK (April 3, 2014) – The Wildlife Conservation Society reports a major seizure of illegal bushmeat in Congo at Maya Maya International Airport in Brazzaville when authorities recently confiscated approximately 40 animals including monkeys, antelope, and porcupine.

In an unrelated incident, two bushmeat traffickers were arrested transporting 30 carcasses of similar wildlife through the Mila Mila area of Niari. The traffickers are currently awaiting trial.

The seizure and arrests were assisted by PALF (Project for the Application of Law for Fauna – Republic of Congo), a pioneering partnership of the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Aspinall Foundation and supported by the USFWS that is committed to ending wildlife trafficking in Congo.

Conservationists report that recent infrastructure improvements such as better roads and transportation hubs in Congo have resulted in an uptick in illegal hunting and trafficking of protected species.  In addition, traffickers are resorting to threateningwildlife authorities and PALF members in an effort to scare local authorities.

“PALF’s work to stop illegal wildlife trafficking by improving Congo’s legal system is more important than ever,” said James Deutsch, WCS Executive Director for Africa Programs.  “Illegal wildlife trafficking has the potential to strip mine Congo of its world class wildlife and natural heritage.  Only through tough law enforcement and stopping corruption can trafficking be eliminated.”

To aid in future enforcement efforts, PALF launched a sniffer dog program last month that works with local authorities to detect illegal wildlife products including ivory being transported within the country and internationally.

@KeithKloor weighs in on @RogerPielkeJr flogging. All happening on a tiny corner (attribution debate) of the head of a pin called climate change discourse. All serving those hoping the public stays confused about climate consensus. Rope-a-dope.