Few dots to connect in gauging patterns of extreme storms in warming world, says @NOAA-led paper: “Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge" (authors below)

Abstract: The state of knowledge regarding trends and an understanding of their causes is presented for a specific subset of extreme weather and climate types. For severe convective storms (tornadoes, hail storms, and severe thunderstorms), differences in time and space of practices of collecting reports of events make the use of the reporting database to detect trends extremely difficult. Overall, changes in the frequency of environments favorable for severe thunderstorms have not been statistically significant. For extreme precipitation, there is strong evidence for a nationally-averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events. The causes of the observed trends have not been determined with certainty, although there is evidence that increasing atmospheric water vapor may be one factor. For hurricanes and typhoons, robust detection of trends in Atlantic and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is significantly constrained by data heterogeneity and deficient quantification of internal variability. Attribution of past TC changes is further challenged by a lack of consensus on the physical linkages between climate forcing and TC activity. As a result, attribution of trends to anthropogenic forcing remains controversial. For severe snowstorms and ice storms, the number of severe regional snowstorms that occurred since 1960 was more than twice that of the preceding 60 years. There are no significant multi-decadal trends in the areal percentage of the contiguous U.S. impacted by extreme seasonal snowfall amounts since 1900. There is no distinguishable trend in the frequency of ice storms for the U.S. as a whole since 1950.


Kenneth E. Kunkel1Thomas R. Karl2Harold Brooks3James Kossin2Jay H. Lawrimore2Derek Arndt2,Lance Bosart4David Changnon5Susan L. Cutter6Nolan Doesken7Kerry Emanuel8Pavel Ya. Groisman2,Richard W. Katz9Thomas Knutson10James O’Brien11Christopher J. Paciorek19Thomas C. Peterson2,Kelly Redmond12David Robinson13Jeff Trapp14Russell Vose2Scott Weaver15Michael Wehner16KlausWolter17Donald Wuebbles18