If irked by India’s lack of CO2 plan, weigh 2 numbers: 1.9 & 16.4 (tons CO2/person/year). My @BrianLehrer chat has more. Much more on Dot Earth.
My chat with Brian Lehrer on the #peoplesclimate march, U.N. #climate2014summit & energy & climate choices is now posted:http://www.wnyc.org/story/long-view-climate-action/
U.N. Climate Summit Harvests a Host of Commitments http://nyti.ms/Y3EsFM
New CO2 Emissions Report Shows China’s Central Role in Shaping World’s Climate Path http://nyti.ms/XU8ziH
Humanity’s Long Climate and Energy March http://nyti.ms/XNLBJQ
I agree with Steve Koonin’s core point in @wsj (deep uncertainty in global warming beyond basics). But here’s where I told him we differ:
a) Your piece makes the important point that, on vital questions, there’s enduring deep uncertainty behind the “97 Percent of Climate Scientists Agree” headlines and IPCC report summary language. That was the point of my pieces on the many “shapes" of climate knowledge.
Human population, led by Africa (in part through paucity of family planning), likely to be on the up and up through 2100, new analysis finds (Science):
Global Population Won’t Stabilize This Century
A new report suggests that contrary to past projections arguing that global population will peak around 2050, the world’s population is unlikely to stabilize this century. The results, based on a statistical analysis of the most recent population projections from the United Nations (UN), point to Sub-Saharan Africa as the primary engine driving this unexpected growth through 2100. Patrick Gerland and colleagues applied advanced techniques to the latest UN data to estimate future demographic trends — like fertility and life expectancy — with great accuracy. They estimate an 80% probability that the world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion by 2100. The main reason for this is an increase in the projected population of Africa, the researchers say; demographers had projected that fertility in Africa would decline, but Gerland et al.show that levels of fertility throughout the region are persistently high. Furthermore, many African women are still having larger families (median 4.6 children), in part due to lack of contraceptives. Mortality from HIV has been reduced in Africa, too, further contributing to population growth. The ratio of working age people to older people is almost certain to decline substantially as well. Because rapid population increase in high-fertility countries can create challenges ranging from depletion of natural resources to unemployment to social unrest, the results of this study have important policy implications. The projected population growth could be moderated, the researchers say, by more substantial investments in girls’ education and family planning programs that provide contraceptives; both factors influence fertility. The UN’s population reports, published every two years, feature “high” and “low” projections that have been criticized for lacking a probabilistic basis.
Article #21: “World population stabilization unlikely this century,” by P. Gerland; N. Li; D. Gu; T. Spoorenberg; J. Wilmoth at United Nations in New York, NY; A.E. Raftery; H. Ševčíková; N. Lalic at University of Washington in Seattle WA; L. Alkema at National University of Singapore in Singapore; B.K. Fosdick at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, CO; J. Chunn at James Cook University Singapore in Singapore; G. Bay at Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE), Population Division of the United Nations ECLAC in Santiago, Chile; T. Buettner; G.K. Heilig, independent consultant.
Long-distance learning in our #PaceBlog class discussion of online platforms tonight (photo by Elise Vaux).
Two priceless papers on undervalued “applied” science, co-authored by Dan Kammen in the ’90s, still resonate today: “Science and Engineering Research That Values the Planet" (with Arne Jacobson) and "The Virtues of Mundane Science" (with Michael Dove). Here’s the conclusion of the "mundane" paper:
"There are a number of ways to give such initiatives a larger role in research and policy decisions. These include giving much more support to academic-industry and academic-practitioner partnerships; extending academic boundaries to encompass the entire range of human-environment interactions; breaking down the often antagonistic division between development professionals and academia; instituting a more open review process for development publications, projects, and institutions; removing the barrier between development planners and the intended beneficiaries or local populations; and addressing the frequently counterproductive tension between pure and applied research. The primary obstacles to implementing these proposals are cultural and institutional, not scientific. Expanding our commitment to mundane science requires that we overcome a Catch-22, however: Mundane issues generate little interest until a crisis emerges, at which point a solution is expected at once because the problem appears to be so simple. Unless we overcome the bias against mundane science, we will be wedded to shortsighted, partial solutions to emerging issues in development and the environment. Serious research requires a commitment to sustained periods of training, preparation, and support, which mundane science rarely receives. A valuable principle to use in the design and evaluation of sustainable development initiatives is that of use-inspired basic research, which – however basic the science involved – has a clear focus on applications…."
Should Fin Whales Be a Source of Wonder or Meat?
Birdwatching: Increasingly a moving target via global warming. Animated range map part of @AudubonSocity Birds & Climate Report.
A Closer Look at the Ebola Epidemic in the Context of Ecological Health.